By Dave McNeely | Published Sunday, August 31, 2008
KALISPELL, Montana - Here on the western edge of Glacier National Park, Montanans are both excited and a bit surprised that Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has been to this state half a dozen times in his campaign - including while the Democratic convention was going on in Denver.
Montana has just three electoral votes and a history of voting Republican in presidential elections for decades. Republicans have won the presidential vote in all but two of the elections since 1952. It last gave a Democrat a plurality in 1992, to Bill Clinton, when independent Ross Perot drew off 26 percent of the vote from then-President George Bush, and a majority in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won a landslide in the wake of John Kennedy's assassination.
Montana voters gave Republican George W. Bush 58 percent in 2000 and 59 percent in 2004.
But despite having an African-American population of just three-tenths of one percent, Montana Democrats supported Obama strongly over Hillary Clinton in the primary June 3. The Obama campaign is hoping the Montana appearances can help underline the popularity he demonstrated in another state where blacks are sparse - Iowa - in that state's early caucuses in January.
Democrats here say Montana can really be a swing state - if the stars line up right. And in Obama's face-off with Republican John McCain, they just might.
Montana, known for its populists of the left and right, is a state where the governor and one of the senators were Republican as recently as four years ago. But in 2004, it elected Democrat Brian Schweitzer as governor. And in 2006, it replaced Republican Conrad Burns and sent Democrat Jon Tester to join five-term Democrat Max Baucus in the Senate. The popular Baucus is up this year for election to his sixth six-year term.
(At the same time, the state's lone member of the U.S. House, former Republican Lt. Gov. Denny Rehberg, is expected to win re-election. The state's house and senate are almost evenly divided between the parties.)
Another reason Obama can afford to spend valuable campaign time in this sparsely populated state is that the press follows the presidential candidates everywhere these days. Obama's Montana forays may help show voters in other western states, like Colorado, Nevada and Alaska, that he cares about competing in states that have been considered virtual locks for Republican presidential campaigns.
Democrats in Texas wish the same logic had been applied to their state as the Obama campaign is giving to the mountain west, because it might help fire up some races down the ballot.
But Obama and running mate Joe Biden will find out in November whether the western strategy was correct.
Hillary for Veep?
McCain has been running TV ads ragging Obama for not choosing Hillary Clinton as his running mate. There's even one ad with a young woman describing herself as a Hillary Democrat - who says now she's going to vote for McCain.
Late-night TV comedian Jay Leno on Monday asked McCain perhaps the obvious question: if you think it's important for Hillary Clinton to be a vice-presidential nominee, why don't you pick her?
The straight-talk senator fell away from that one like a batter with a high hard fastball coming straight at his head. McCain said a few nice things about Clinton, and then verbally wandered off into how bad the public regards the Congress.
Texas U.S. Senate Debates
Meanwhile, Republican incumbent John Cornyn and his Democratic challenger, Houston state Rep. Rick Noriega, have agreed to two public television debates - one in Houston and one in Dallas.
The debates will be organized by KUHT in Houston on Oct. 9 and by KERA in Dallas on Oct. 16. Both will be aired at 8 p.m., and the stations plan to feed the debates to other television stations throughout Texas.
Noriega, the underdog, would like to have three additional debates, said spokeswoman Holly Shulman. Cornyn's campaign spokesman Rob Jesmer responded by criticizing Noriega for not debating more with Democratic primary opponent Ray McMurrey in the spring.
The two Democrats had one actual debate this spring and appeared at several forums for candidates. Noriega beat McMurrey and two other opponents, with 51 percent of the vote.
Texas House Speaker to Debate
Republican Tom Craddick, the three-term Texas House Speaker from Midland, has agreed to a televised debate with Democratic challenger Bill Dingus, an oilman and former city councilman.
The debate will be broadcast live at 6 p.m. Oct. 19 on KMID, the local ABC outlet, and on MyWestTexas.com.
Craddick, now in his 40th year in the House, can buy all of the television exposure he wants. As of the last campaign finance reporting deadline July 15, Craddick reported almost $3.4 million in his campaign treasury as of the July 15 reporting deadline. Dingus reported just over $4,500 on hand.
Contact McNeely at dmcneely@austin.rr.com or (512) 458-2963.
