Electoral College causes Texans to miss lots of presidential campaign
By Dave McNeely | Published Sunday, September 21, 2008
OK, every American interested in watching all the television ads that will be part of the presidential election process, take a step forward. Not so fast, Texans.
This doesn't include you. You don't have to worry about presidential ads hogging your television screens from now until election day Nov. 4 - unless you live in El Paso.
The only ads you will see will be generic national ones, on networks that cover a lot of politics - like CNN and MSNBC. And, you may occasionally see an ad actually on the news, usually if it's controversial.
Otherwise, you'd have to be in a TV market that serves a swing state to get a full picture of how the TV campaign is being run. Like El Paso.
That's because the campaigns of both Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama consider Texas a slam-dunk Red State, certain to vote Republican, as it has in every presidential race since 1976.
The reason is the combination of the electoral college and finite resources. Without unlimited money, which neither side has, both campaigns want their dollars to go where they'll make the most difference. That would be in the so-called "swing states" - ones that could go either way in the presidential race.
Since Texas is thought certain to cast its electoral votes for McCain, neither side will spend much money here. The same goes for Illinois, Obama's home state, presumed to go Blue.
When the Founding Fathers set up the electoral college, it was a compromise between those who wanted popular election of the president and vice-president, and those who wanted them selected by Congress.
So the Constitution writers designed the electoral college. Each state gets one elector for each of its members of Congress, including senators.
The electors from each state would meet and decide who they wanted for president and vice-president for the next four years. The candidates who got the most of the state's electoral votes were awarded all of them, in a winner-take-all process.
With the establishment of political parties, electoral slates were chosen by the parties to put before voters. By the 1948 election in Texas, the presidential tickets rather than the electoral slates appeared on the ballot.
Maine, since 1972, and Nebraska, since 1996, have chosen to award the winner in each congressional district an electoral vote, and the state winner gets the final two. So far, it hasn't mattered; all five of Nebraska's votes have gone to one party (Republican), and all four of Maine's (Republican through 1988; Democratic since 1992). But Obama is competing in the Omaha, Neb., 2nd Congressional District in hopes of picking off an electoral vote.
If John McCain wins Texas even by just a couple of percentage points, he'll still get all 34 of Texas' electoral votes. (You may recall that George W. Bush in 2000 was decreed to have led Florida's vote count by 537 votes and thus was awarded all 25 of the state's electoral votes - and thus the election.)
Even though the electoral college's vote after the regular election is now nothing but a formality, the electors in each state dutifully gather every four years and go through the motions.
(There are occasional maverick "faithless electors" who don't honor their pledge, but they are rare.)
Earlier, it seemed as if Obama might make good on his goal to compete in all 50 states - including Texas. But it was later decided it made more sense to focus the campaign's resources in states where he has a chance to win some electoral votes.
So Texas was left without an Obama corsage. However, New Mexico is considered a swing state. Thus El Pasoans will see lots of TV ads while the rest of Texas won't, because the way to reach voters in southern New Mexico is on TV stations in El Paso, just across the border.
Some argue that having every state copy Maine and Nebraska would lead to more campaigning in current non-battleground states. But opponents say that would just bring the contest down to swing congressional districts, which could narrow rather than broaden the candidates' campaigns.
Adopt a swing state ...
Texas is the training ground for an Obama army of hundreds of volunteers, who are already making phone calls to New Mexico. Many will go there the final week.
Other states presumed sure Blue or Red have similar Obama operations with nearby swing states: blue New York helping in swing Pennsylvania, blue California helping in Nevada, and so on.
Sun Belt electoral vote change...
When Texas joined the United States in 1845, and voted in its first presidential election in 1848, it had four electoral votes, Florida had 3, and California wasn't a state. New York had 36.
Today, Texas has 34, Florida 27 and California 55. New York has 31.
Contact McNeely at dmcneely@austin.rr.com or (512) 458-2963.
